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Just two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – going beyond who would win overall, and block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous initially: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots that came in after that and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained half a million votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump last year backed the progressive now. But it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he does so then no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many Republicans on the island who had a high participation. I think there was significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for the independent. So there was a little resistance. But overall, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were strongly supportive. So I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key figures from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that each urban center in America can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.