Daily Murders in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The average figure of per-day homicides each month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh administrative data. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have advised that homicide numbers could fail to signal better countrywide stability.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when the President began the presidency in September. This information was provided by the head of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded over these past months is very notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that last month the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the administration's heavily militarised operations to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate soar in the past few years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an apparently more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security analysts urged caution that using homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is notably true given the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder data and think: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical period last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer reliable for estimating the context of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was also an issue because it might mask days when there were particularly high numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

However despite these measures, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a notable killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to build a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas remarked.